How Rail Operators are Responding to COVID-19, and Their Plans for the Recovery

How are other rail operators responding to COVID-19? What’s working and what’s not? What are their future plans?

We hear these questions all the time. Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 remains a hot topic in the Revenue Management for Passenger Rail group on LinkedIn, and in our daily conversations with Revenue Management teams on the front lines.

We partnered with the Rail Innovation Group—a leading independent not-for-profit community providing a neutral space for cross-industry collaboration—to host a virtual roundtable session with a small group of Revenue Managers to discuss coronavirus’s impact in detail.

The group’s answers to the questions we posed at the roundtable provide a window into how many rail operators are thinking and acting during this global pandemic.

We’d like to thank our panelists, listed below, for sharing their expertise during our roundtable:

• Chris James, RMS Expert with the U.K.’s LNER
• Adam Linder, Revenue Manager with Sweden’s SJ AB
• Jaroslav Luckay, Pricing Specialist with Slovakia’s ZSSK

• Andrike Mastebroek, Senior Pricing Marketeer with the Netherlands’ Nederlandse Spoorwegen

1. COVID-19 struck suddenly. Most of Europe went into some form of lockdown, and passenger numbers fell off a cliff. What happened to your demand? Where do your numbers stand now?

Following a steep drop off in passenger volume, panelists are seeing an uptick in passenger demand. While none report anywhere near a full recovery, there is belief that this upward trend will continue in the coming months.

Adam Linder, Revenue Manager with Sweden’s SJ AB, “When the crisis first hit, we saw demand fall by more than 80 percent in terms of passenger volume. For the last two or three months, demand has been quite static, but in the last two or three weeks, we’ve seen a slight bounce back to our old demand. The government issued new recommendations telling people that they were allowed to travel domestically, and that’s made a huge difference to the current demand. However, we are far away from the demand that we saw prior to the crisis.”

Chris James, RMS Expert with the U.K.’s LNER, “We've seen a massive reduction in passenger numbers. The U.K. government issued a very strict do not travel unless necessary message early, and the demand numbers fell straight to the floor with almost immediate, measurable effects. The reduction was 90 percent. There were a handful of trains with 50 or maybe a few more passengers on them, but that’s against a capacity of nearly 600. That gives you an idea of the passenger load levels we’ve had. Now, people are allowed to travel a bit more than they were, so we’ll see. Certainly, searches on the websites are starting to pick up again.”

Jaroslav Luckay, Pricing Specialist with Slovakia’s ZSSK, “We’ve had a drop-off of 80 to 90 percent, so it’s been a really steep. At first, the government ordered us to cancel the running of our intercity trains, and even now we’re running about one-third of our trains in Saturday mode. Right now, we’re recovering very, very fast.”

Andrike Mastebroek, Senior Pricing Marketeer with the Netherlands’ Nederlandse Spoorwegen, “Our passenger numbers also went down to 10 percent of normal demand. The government asked every citizen only to use public transport for people working in vital services, like healthcare. We brought our train service back to a minimum—for example, only two trains an hour instead of six. At the moment, we are running on full service again at request of the government. We are back to 40 percent of our passengers on the weekend and 30 percent during weekdays.”

2. What steps did you take to meet any social-distancing requirements? What else have you done to make your customers feel secure about traveling by rail during this time? How did those measures impact capacity?

Sweden’s SJ AB and Slovakia’s ZSSK have devised their own social-distancing policies and measures. The U.K.’s LNER must comply with strict regulations. For all three, capacity has been substantially diminished.

Adam Linder, Revenue Manager with Sweden’s SJ AB, “I should contextualize a bit about the Swedish policy in terms of the coronavirus. We didn’t have as strict an approach as some other countries had. We received recommendations from the government on how to act, meaning that it was up to each and every passenger to make the decision to travel or not. At SJ we came up with our own improvised solutions. The first major action we took was implementing a next-seat-free policy, meaning that we’d only book 50 percent of the seats. That meant passengers would never have someone sitting right next to them, and we communicated this to our customers. Some of our more popular routes have hit 50 percent capacity.”

Chris James, RMS Expert with the U.K.’s LNER, “In the U.K, the social-distancing rules established by the government are for two meters, which means for us our maximum capacity is about 19 percent of normal. We can only use window seats, and if someone’s in row one, the next person is in row four. To support this change the Revenue Management team rebuilt the trains in the reservation system. We removed all on-train catering, and face masks are now mandatory.”

Jaroslav Luckay, Pricing Specialist with Slovakia’s ZSSK, “At first, the government ordered all intercity trains to be terminated. When they reopened, we didn’t have any requirements or policies like keeping one seat free. The government hasn’t required us to take specific steps, but we did cancel direct seat reservations. The idea was to let customers find the seat where they would be most comfortable. And we made sure to train our staff to help customers choose the seats where they’d feel safest.”

“As Revenue Managers, we need to be open and adaptable to the fact that everything can all change. There could be a second surge next winter and all the plans get knocked into next summer.”
          —Chris James, LNER

Andrike Mastebroek, Senior Pricing Marketeer with the Netherlands’ Nederlandse Spoorwegen, “The social distancing rules are one and a half meters. In the beginning, we only used window seats. With the obligatory use of face masks since June 1st, we were allowed to use 40 percent of our seating capacity and, since the 1st of July, we are allowed to use 100 percent of our seating capacity.”

3. Everyone is wondering when will passengers return to the railways, and at what levels? What are you forecasting?

There’s just too much uncertainty right now for our panelists to feel comfortable making anything like a firm prediction of when passengers will return. One thing’s for sure—no one thinks a strong recovery is right around the corner and the general belief is depressed volumes through the remainder of 2020.

Chris James, RMS Expert with the U.K.’s LNER, “I think that as revenue managers, we need to be open and adaptable to the fact that everything can all change. There could be a second surge next winter and all the plans get knocked into next summer. At the moment, we’re still down at the bottom of the trough. And I’m no clairvoyant, so at the moment we’re still in crisis management, but we’ve got a handle on the crisis. We’ve got a pricing situation that is right for now. And it’s also ready to be changed as soon as the green shoots appear. We are expecting to see leisure travel begin to pick up following the announcement that hotels and holiday destinations are opening from 04 July. But I think there’s very little point having everything set in stone for everyone coming back on January 2nd, 2021. Because I don’t think it's going to be that easy. I think it’s going to be very changeable, and we’ve just got to kind of get used to the fact that we don’t know.”

Jaroslav Luckay, Pricing Specialist with Slovakia’s ZSSK, “We’ve been predicting for this summer a higher number of leisure customers and customers who travel for short, two- to three-day trips within Slovakia. These travelers are the ones we expect to see return in highest numbers the soonest. Customers who travel every day to and from their work, it’s very hard to forecast them because so many are working from home, and work from home may become a permanent thing for many businesses here. Historically, working from home hasn’t been something companies offered widely, but that may be changing. I think we’re going to be in this reduced demand situation for, let’s say, one year. And I don’t think it will ever be the same as it was before COVID-19. [There are a lot of reasons for that, including more working from home and passengers choosing not to travel.] The key will be to identify whatever the new normal in customer volumes is.”

Adam Linder, Revenue Manager with Sweden’s SJ AB, “When we think about the demand that we can capture this summer and in the third and fourth quarters of this year, it’s kind of hard to know at this point how much we will lose in terms of revenue from our corporate travelers. Before we entered this summer period, we didn’t see any business travel at all. So, it’s hard to see. We’re carrying out day-to-day analysis and have set up different scenarios and have come up with several recovery plans. And we just don’t know how companies will adapt to the new circumstances. Are they becoming more digitalized, having more digital meetings? How much have they suffered during the crisis in terms of financial means and stability?”

Andrike Mastebroek, Senior Pricing Marketeer with the Netherlands’ Nederlandse Spoorwegen, “We are monitoring in a large panel research (together with the university of Delft) the attitude of people travelling by train. Based on this research, we still expect 30 percent of people to avoid the train in 2021. However, of course, this is based on current sentiments. This also depends the restrictions in the buildings (for example universities can only use 25 percent of their building capacity) in the expected economic crisis.”

4. The COVID pandemic is likely to bring long-term changes to how people travel, especially with working from home looking more and more like a long-term substitute for going to the office every day. How do you think rail will be affected?

Who would have thought the COVID crisis would also produce a new competitor—remote work—for passenger rail to contend with? While it’s difficult to predict if passengers will prefer other, more socially distanced modes of transportation, it is still something that must be monitored closely.

Jaroslav Luckay, Pricing Specialist with Slovakia’s ZSSK, “It’s really hard to know what the long-term changes will be. Things are changing day by day. It does seem that the forecast for everyday travel to and from work is going to drop off long term, because these companies have invested a lot of money in remote-work software. I expect companies will keep people at home right after COVID, and in part because of their investments in new software, companies will keep their current remote-work policies.”

“Customers who travel every day to and from their work, it’s very hard to forecast them because so many are working from home, and work from home may become a permanent thing for many businesses here.”
          —Jaroslav Luckay, ZSSK

Andrike Mastebroek, Senior Pricing Marketeer with the Netherlands’ Nederlandse Spoorwegen, “I think some trends will stay in the place, like online meetings, which before corona involved a lot of travelling. The technology is now in place and everybody is used to it. But I also see a lot of people missing their colleagues and the discipline at the office.”

5. Are there any ways you see of offsetting potential long-term reductions in demand? Modal shifts from air and car travel to rail have been a popular topic for a while now. Could a new source of passengers from mode shifting help to offset any losses from permanent work-from-home trends or other changes coming as part of the “new normal”?

There may be a time when mode shifting helps passenger rail build demand, but our panelists agree that now isn’t that time. Each has different, but equally interesting, reasons for thinking this way.

Adam Linder, Revenue Manager with Sweden’s SJ AB, “I would say in Sweden, passenger rail has been very fortunate in terms of political narrative and infrastructure. Very few other countries have managed to steal market share from domestic air travel the way rail has here. There is a coalition of liberal, social, and green democrats (and many conservatives as well) that heavily supports and promotes green industries and the rail industry given the very low emission levels. The position rail has gained has given rise to a phenomenon that we in Sweden call ‘air shame’ and ‘rail brag’ (those are direct translations). The atmosphere has made rail the number one alternative for domestic travel, morally and practically. People and companies that choose to fly domestically sometimes feel the urge to excuse themselves, hence the name ‘air shame’. However, the COVID-19 outbreak could be a potential deal-breaker that disrupts and changes the course of the development that we’ve seen for the last 10 to 15 years. By that I mean, for instance, there could be fewer people travelling by rail because they shift to cars, don’t travel as much as before, and so forth.”

I think we are set back in time for at least five years—we expect to be back on pre-corona demand in 2025.
          —Andrike Mastebroek, Nederlandse Spoorwegen

Jaroslav Luckay, Pricing Specialist with Slovakia’s ZSSK, “Our experience in Slovakia is the opposite of what Adam describes in Sweden. First, air travel is very limited in Slovakia, both domestic and international. If you want to fly internationally, you typically go to Prague or Vienna to get a flight. We’re not really competing against air travel. Automobile travel is our main competition. And we’re also not like Sweden in that being environmentally conscious is not so widespread as it is there. If we want to encourage mode shifting, we have to show our customers different benefits than the value of going green.”

Chris James, RMS Expert with the U.K.’s LNER, “We’ve already been working on this over the years. In the U.K., encouraging people to get out of their cars or choose rail over air is as much a challenge for Revenue Management as it is for marketing. Our marketing team has done a lot of very good work with advertising and campaigns to make the case, but it’s very, very difficult. Obviously, the carbon footprint of flying from Edinburgh to London is substantially higher than the carbon footprint of traveling by train. But having looked at SJ’s environmental messaging, they can point to things that we can’t, like the fact that all of SJ’s electricity is generated through sustainable production. We still rely on gas-powered and coal-fired power stations. So, we can’t even say our electricity is definitely green. But even more than narrative is that people here really prefer their cars and have no intention of giving them up, even when we can get them to their destination in half the time.”

6. If there is a long-term decline in demand, how will that impact the number of trains operated and the number of seats on sale?

If declines in demand stretch into the long term, rail operators will need to fundamentally rethink how they can get passengers back in their trains and how they balance their capacity to meet that demand.

Chris James, RMS Expert with the U.K.’s LNER, “If demand over the long term drops by a substantial amount, it will pose big challenges across the entire industry. The cost base is relatively fixed and also relatively high. So, I think we would as an industry probably need to look at what we’re offering and how we offer and try to bring demand back as close as possible to pre-COVID levels. In two or three months, the world may suddenly start to feel more positive. But if, for example, a vaccine is successful, then as Revenue Managers we need to get out of crisis management mode and start looking at the future and see what we can do and challenging colleagues to come up with compelling reasons to travel by train.”

“I think there will be increased pressure on Revenue Management teams to regain the revenue we saw before the crisis. And that should encourage rail companies to invest in Revenue Management Systems that are way more advanced.”
          —Adam Linder, SJ AB

7. Are there any signals, like data or market research, that you’re monitoring and think could be leading indicators that we’re emerging from this crisis?

The data doesn’t paint a pretty picture at the moment, but our panelists agree there’s no substitute for keeping a close eye on the numbers and trends. It’s also vital to learn from any and all sources of research, including surveying actual customers to understand their perceptions.

Chris James, RMS Expert with the U.K.’s LNER, “There’s so much research being done on a weekly basis. It's simply a case of checking the most recent results and seeing how they’ve changed from the previous results and not being afraid to reissue your forecast. We have access to research papers from various external bodies who are doing passenger sentiment research for us. We also conduct our own research with customer panels and monitor web traffic on our website. We’re looking at recent trends and building a forecast based on that. And we do have managers dedicated to creating a long-term forecast, although at the moment the long-term forecast probably sees to the end of the year. But I think data is going to be unhelpful at this time. The data isn’t our friend. It just tells us how bad things are. It’s going to take a combination of information sources and having teams out there talking to business travelers and the buyers at the large corporations, finding out what their plans are for next year, what their plans after next year are, what their policies are. As Revenue Managers, we need to listen to the narrative that this combination of information sources creates as a whole. Any research we can get our hands on is going to be key. And just watching the list of passenger numbers as we get through the summer and then probably also through the autumn will give us an idea of whether it’s a build towards the old normal or, whether it’s going to plateau out a new normal.”

Adam Linder, Revenue Manager with Sweden’s SJ AB, “That’s a tough question, and there are so many things we need to address. Overall, before we make any assumptions on what a new normal might be, we’re looking only for sustained patterns. That includes things like how our customers respond to government recommendations. We’re trying to have a very broad approach to how we tackle these kinds of questions, and that means having daily discussions and follow ups, at least during this crisis period. As I said, we’re working hard to identify instructive patterns and any changes to them. We’re looking at our pricing policy macro outlooks. And we’re engaging all of our customers in this journey, too, as we look to go back to where we want to be, so to speak. And we’re trying to communicate clearly to our customers what we are doing and how we are innovating in order to facilitate their return to SC trains.”

“The top priority is going to be making sure that the Revenue Management strategies we have in place are relevant to 2021 and aren’t based on what we knew in 2019.”
          —Chris James, LNER

Jaroslav Luckay, Pricing Specialist with Slovakia’s ZSSK, “From my point of view, I think statistics are really the key element to figuring out what the new normal will be. For example, do we return to 75 percent of pre-COVID demand, or whatever the figure is. We shouldn’t forget about the data from before the crisis, but the data since the start of the recovery from COVID will give us the information we need about where we are now and where we’re going. I think we really need to stick to the statistics we’re seeing now, and they will be the key to how we price and manage revenue.”

Andrike Mastebroek, Senior Pricing Marketeer with the Netherlands’ Nederlandse Spoorwegen, “We were working on some large orders of new trains. We stopped that process. I think we are set back in time for at least five years—we expect to be back on pre-corona demand in 2025.”

8. Have you continued marketing to customers, and if so, how have those efforts been impacted by the pandemic?

Panelists report continuing marketing efforts, but with a soft touch. They see it as vital to let customers know rail is still an option, but while also encouraging safe travel and compliance with any government restrictions. The focus is on making travel easier, while balancing any negative public perception due to broad price increases or decreases.

Adam Linder, Revenue Manager with Sweden’s SJ AB, “One of the actions we took when the crisis hit was to price refundable and non-refundable tickets the same. We were hoping that would add some confidence for customers booking a little further in advance. However, in terms of booking patterns we are seeing a much shorter booking window than before, and that hurts our traffic when it comes to summer revenue. We’re still promoting this offer, but we’re taking a softer approach. We’re trying to engage with our customers and encourage them to travel with us and use their common sense to be safe. If they’re uncertain about whether to travel or not this summer, we hope this will help them decide.”

Chris James, RMS Expert with the U.K.’s LNER, “When the crisis struck, we took down all of our marketing and promotional materials. We already had paid-for media, so we handed some of it to our charity partners and used the rest to shore up our messaging about social distancing. Right now, we have several ideas in our back pocket, but the plan is to support the government’s message until such time that we can, in all conscience, start actively promoting travel on LNER by advertising. We are, however, already talking to our corporate customers, taking a very soft approach. We’re keeping the business-to-business conversation going, because we still need to maintain a relationship with them, even if they’re traveling at reduced rates.”

Jaroslav Luckay, Pricing Specialist with Slovakia’s ZSSK, “A lot of our focus is on seasonal tickets, which will appeal to the leisure and holiday customers we’re expecting to be some of our main customers this summer. We call it the Slovak ticket, where customers buy a ticket that’s valid for one week and they can use it go anywhere in Slovakia as many times as they wish.”

Andrike Mastebroek, Senior Pricing Marketeer with the Netherlands’ Nederlandse Spoorwegen, “We stopped all marketing efforts. We stopped selling cheap tickets. And customers with season tickets were allowed to pause them instead of stopping them. This way, we hope to keep the customer relationship and to get them back into the trains as soon as possible.”

9. From the beginning of the pandemic to the present, what’s been the role of Revenue Management at your company? What about your Revenue Management Systems?

Panelists report active Revenue Management and use of their RMS when it comes to putting into action their specific responses to the COVID crisis. Revenue Management is and will continue to be a tool that can be used to manage demand and enforce social guidelines.

Jaroslav Luckay, Pricing Specialist with Slovakia’s ZSSK, “At the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, we terminated all the intercity trains. But when they begin running again at a higher capacity, we can begin revenue managing from the first customer, because if we have a low number of customers, then we’ll need to be able to react to this and price accordingly.”

“A big focus for us will be making sure we’re competitive in terms of price when compared to other modes of travel. That includes travel by car.”
          —Jaroslav Luckay, ZSSK

Adam Linder, Revenue Manager with Sweden’s SJ AB, “Our RMS itself is quite skewed towards old pre-crisis data and travel patterns. Thus, we are working more manually than usual at this point. That tells us at SJ that we need to have revenue systems that also account for more sophisticated data in real time—and not only relying on historical data, since that can be very insufficient at this particular point.”

Chris James, RMS Expert with the U.K.’s LNER, “One of our key Revenue Management priorities is to maintain continuous pricing strategy that’s visible to the customers. As a corporate entity, in times of crisis you’ve always got to avoid the perception of profiteering. We don’t want customers day in and day to see a massive jump in price. But by the same token, we also didn’t want them to see it as LNER just throwing a whole heap of cheap inventory out, so that we then get perceived to be promoting travel at a time when people are being told not to travel. So, we’ve changed our Revenue Management approaches, but it was all about making sure the customer didn’t see any difference. That’s even though we’ve fundamentally changed our approach in the background.”

Andrike Mastebroek, Senior Pricing Marketeer with the Netherlands’ Nederlandse Spoorwegen, “All focus was on the crisis and how to respond on it. The financials were secondary. After a few weeks when the first measures became normal, there was more room to talk about the financials.”

10. How do you see Revenue Management and your RMS changing in the future—the “new normal” as it’s being called?

In the months ahead, Revenue Management is likely to be under increased pressure to perform. For some operators, that will require an investment in technology with powerful capabilities.

Adam Linder, Revenue Manager with Sweden’s SJ AB, “Given what we’ve experienced in the last months, I think there will be increased pressure on Revenue Management teams to regain the kind of revenue that we saw before the crisis. And that should encourage rail companies to invest in Revenue Management Systems that are way more advanced. They should be able to some extent to incorporate other types of metrics and factors in real time. We rely more on solely historical data. But I would say the COVID crisis has led to a very unexpected disturbance in terms of what we see usually when we look at the revenue and demand patterns.”

Andrike Mastebroek, Senior Pricing Marketeer with the Netherlands’ Nederlandse Spoorwegen, “We have a wide variety of season tickets. Some of them don’t seem to be appropriate at the moment. Too expensive for the customer with less travelling or not bringing in enough money anymore for NS. Coming summer months, we will have another look at our propositions and will make adjustments or even make new propositions if necessary.”

“We’re working more closely with other teams than we did before the crisis, so I hope that will equip us to continue doing so during the recovery.”
          —Adam Linder, SJ AB

11. Has the pandemic crisis led you to work more closely with other teams in your company, specifically Operations, Sales, and/or Marketing? Do your various corporate systems integrate well enough to support this kind of cross-team cooperation? 

First, the good news: Cross-department cooperation is on the rise. Now, the bad news: Poor system integration means it’s much harder than it needs to be. There’s not a single source of truth, which is something that comes with centralized systems and reporting.

Adam Linder, Revenue Manager with Sweden’s SJ AB, “We’re working more closely with other teams than we did before the crisis, so I hope that will equip us to continue doing so during the recovery. Unfortunately, however, our various systems don’t integrate, so we’re often talking a different language, if you will. That’s something I miss compared to other industries I’ve worked in, like hospitality, where everyone is using the same data, metrics, terminology, and so forth. To foster cooperation between departments is way more time consuming than it should be.”

Andrike Mastebroek, Senior Pricing Marketeer with the Netherlands’ Nederlandse Spoorwegen, “I am working closer with regulatory affairs and public affairs. For example, government, public transport companies and universities made an agreement about the startup of the universities in September. Thirty percent of our customer numbers are students. The ambition is to also make agreements with other sectors as well this summer.”

12. Let’s look ahead to 2021. What do you expect will be your top Revenue Management priorities? Where do you expect to be focusing most of your effort?

Panelists have firm, focused thoughts on what will be most important to get right in 2021, including offering relevant, competitively priced products, further collaboration with other teams (marketing, product, etc.) and expanding the capabilities of their technology systems.

Chris James, RMS Expert with the U.K.’s LNER, “The top priority is going to be making sure that the Revenue Management strategies we have in place are relevant to 2021 and aren’t based on what we knew in 2019. I think looking slightly beyond Revenue Management, we also need to make sure our products are as relevant to 2021 as they were in 2019. And Revenue Management coordinating with sales and marketing will be hugely important over the next 12 months as we work out what the future looks like. There’ll be no time for silo working, and all teams are going to have to be open to the fact that what we’ve done before might not what might not be what we do in the future.”

With the obligatory use of face masks since June 1st, we were allowed to use 40 percent of our seating capacity and, since the 1st of July, we are allowed to use 100 percent of our seating capacity.
          —Andrike Mastebroek, Nederlandse Spoorwegen

Jaroslav Luckay, Pricing Specialist with Slovakia’s ZSSK, “A big focus for us will be making sure we’re competitive in terms of price when compared to other modes of travel. That includes travel by car and being competitive in terms of the cost of getting somewhere by train versus car.”

Adam Linder, Revenue Manager with Sweden’s SJ AB, “First of all, in terms of our Revenue Management technology, I’m looking for product development that offers new features that will incorporate more relevant measures and factors. Personally, I would like a future RMS to be more visual as well, so it’s easier to grasp our demand and traffic patterns. Within SJ, I would like to plan jointly with our traffic planning department. That means knowing how we can capture demand and also incorporate that data with our train stock mobility. It’s not a thing that can change over the course of a day. And I would also say that we’re working on forming a standardized, common platform from which the whole revenue team can derive knowledge. And finally, with our price-setting agenda, we need standardized reporting and a blueprint for how we address new ticket releases for future travel periods.”

Andrike Mastebroek, Senior Pricing Marketeer with the Netherlands’ Nederlandse Spoorwegen, “The crisis brought some new opportunities for us as well. Normally we have a quite rigid pricing scheme which is very hard to change. The crisis showed the necessity to spread more during the peak hours. Now we have more tools and more momentum (than before the crisis) to try to get them in place and develop a more flexible pricing scheme.”

Working Hard to Meet the Moment

It’s clear the pandemic will change the fabric of travel for years. Leisure travel will change. Work travel will change. Virtual meetings and new competitors will rise. Right now, Revenue Management teams are working hard to meet the moment by keeping their ears to the ground, supporting their customers, becoming nimble, and planning for a variety of futures despite the uncertainty.

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